Sheridan #1 - EdTribune WY - Wyoming Education Data

Only 6 of 48 Districts Have Recovered from COVID

Thu, 14 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Wyoming reopened its schools faster than almost any state in the country. Yet five years after the pandemic, only 6 of 48 comparable districts have returned to their pre-COVID enrollment levels.

The state lost 1,894 students in the initial COVID year of 2020-21. In the five years since, it has lost an additional 5,193, a post-pandemic decline 2.7 times larger than the pandemic itself.

Wyoming's 12.5 percent COVID recovery rate is among the lowest in the nation. The early reopening did not produce an enrollment rebound. What it produced was a brief stabilization before the structural decline resumed.

The six that came back

The districts that have recovered share a common trait: something happened to them that had nothing to do with demographics.

Weston #7 (Upton) quadrupled from 235 to 806 students between 2020 and 2026, driven by a Powder River Basin oil boom. Big Horn #1 and Niobrara #1 both had anomalous 2021 spikes likely tied to virtual enrollment artifacts, and their "recovery" is partly a return to trend. Sheridan #1 grew on a diversified economy of healthcare, tourism, and ranching. Lincoln #1 and Fremont #2 are small districts with modest but real gains.

None of the six largest districts in Wyoming have recovered. Not one.

The forty-two that didn't

Natrona #1 (Casper) has lost 1,736 students since 2020 — 13 percent of its enrollment. Laramie #1 (Cheyenne) has lost 1,402, nearly 10 percent. Sweetwater #1 (Rock Springs) is down 998, an 18.2 percent decline from a district already battered by the energy bust.

Campbell #1 (Gillette) has lost 632 students. Albany #1 (Laramie, home of the University of Wyoming) lost 383. Fremont #1 (Lander) lost 357, nearly a fifth of its 2020 enrollment.

Among the 42 non-recovered districts, the combined loss is 8,918 students since 2020. The six recovered districts gained a combined 1,152, of which 571 came from the single anomalous case of Upton's oil boom.

COVID didn't cause this

The standard narrative for enrollment loss nationwide centers on the pandemic: families left public schools, went private, went virtual, homeschooled. Some of that happened in Wyoming. But the state's data tells a more complicated story.

Wyoming's enrollment peaked in 2016, not 2020. The state was already losing students before the pandemic: 741 in 2017, 285 in 2018. A brief uptick of 803 in 2020, possibly from families returning to Wyoming's early-reopening classrooms, temporarily masked the underlying trend.

Then COVID hit, and the decline accelerated. But the post-COVID trajectory is not a pandemic aftershock. It is the continuation of a structural contraction that began when energy sector employment peaked.

The University of Wyoming's economic forecast projects the state's school-age population declining through 2031. Every age group under 44 is expected to shrink. The districts waiting for a COVID recovery are waiting for something that demographic forces will not deliver.

What recovery means in Wyoming

In most states, COVID recovery is measured by whether enrollment returned to its 2019 or 2020 baseline. In Wyoming, that question is almost beside the point.

Even if all 48 districts recovered to their 2020 levels tomorrow, the state would still be at 93,832, below its 2016 peak of 94,002 and on a demographic trajectory that continues to point downward. COVID did not create Wyoming's enrollment problem. It revealed it.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

One-Third of Wyoming Districts Hit All-Time Lows in 2026

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Seventeen of Wyoming's 51 school districts are at their lowest enrollment in the entire 26-year data record. That is one-third of the state's districts, up from five just a decade ago.

The all-time-low list spans every tier of Wyoming's system. Uinta #1 (2,539 students) and Fremont #25 (2,250) are mid-size regional hubs. Energy-dependent districts like Sweetwater #2 (Green River, 2,201) and Sublette #9 (404) are on it. So are rural districts like Platte #1 (Wheatland, 811), Weston #1 (708), and Sheridan #3 (77).

Wyoming's two largest districts are not yet at their all-time lows, but they are closing in. Laramie #1 (Cheyenne, 12,859) is just 83 students above its 2006 floor. Natrona #1 (Casper, 11,594) is 186 away. At their current pace of decline, both could reach new lows within a year.

At the other end, only four districts are at all-time highs: Sheridan #1 (1,255) and the three new charter academies that opened in 2024-2025.

A rapidly worsening pattern

The share of districts at all-time lows has tripled in a decade. In 2016, at the peak of the energy boom, just 5 of 48 districts (10 percent) were at their historic floor. By 2021, after the COVID shock, 12 districts had reached new lows. A brief recovery brought the number down to 5 in 2022.

Then the acceleration began. Twelve districts hit new lows in 2024. Ten more followed in 2025. And in 2026, the count jumped to 17 — the highest proportion in the data record.

The trend line points in one direction. Each year, more districts set new floor levels that the data has never seen before. For a state with 26 years of enrollment records, reaching uncharted territory in a third of districts in a single year is a signal that the decline is not stabilizing.

Who is at the bottom

The range of districts at all-time lows reveals how broadly the decline has spread.

Uinta #1 (2,539 students) and Fremont #25 (2,250) are mid-size districts that serve as regional hubs. Their presence on the list means the decline is not confined to tiny rural schools or energy-dependent communities — it has reached the districts that anchor multiple counties.

Carbon #1 (Rawlins, 1,592) and Carbon #2 (568) are both at all-time lows, reflecting the combined impact of energy contraction and rural depopulation. Johnson #1 (Buffalo, 1,097) and Washakie #1 (Worland, 1,050) are approaching the threshold below which maintaining a full-service district becomes increasingly difficult.

At the extreme end, Sheridan #3 enrolls 77 students, Platte #2 enrolls 185, and Big Horn #4 enrolls 225 — all at historic lows.

The four at all-time highs

Sheridan #1 is the only established district at an all-time high. Its economy is more diversified than the energy counties — healthcare, tourism, and ranching provide a broader employment base. The other three all-time highs are the new charter academies: Wyoming Classical Academy (367), Cheyenne Classical Academy (186), and Prairie View Community School (126).

The presence of charter schools at all-time highs in a state where one-third of traditional districts are at all-time lows captures Wyoming's enrollment challenge in miniature. The total student pool is shrinking. New schools are dividing it further. And the districts that built their infrastructure for a larger population are left with buildings, staff, and budgets designed for students who are no longer there.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.